Thursday, September 21, 2017

Ixalan Limited Dive Down: Tribal Payoffs

Here is a quick reference list of every card in Ixalan that explicitly references a creature type:



  • Kinjalli’s Caller - W - C (0/3 dino-speaker)
  • Imperial Lancer - W - U (1/1 maybe doublestrike)
  • Priest of the Wakening Sun - W - R (1/1 reveal to gain 2 / 3WW tutor)
  • Pterodon Knight - 3W - C (3/3 maybe flying)
  • Wakening Sun’s Avatar - 5WWW - M (7/7 wrath)
  • Otepec Huntmaster - 1R - U (1/2 dinospeaker + tap for haste to dino)
  • Tilonalli’s Knight - 1R - C (2/2, 3/3 on attack if dino)
  • Thrash of Raptors - 3R - C (3/3, 5/3 trample if dino)
  • Dinosaur Stampede - 2R - U (trumpet blast & trample to dinos)
  • Drover of the Mighty - 1G - C (gemhide, 3/3 if dino)
  • Thundering Spineback - 5GG - U (5/5, dino lord, 5G make a dino)
  • Commune with Dinosaurs - G - C (top 5, pick dino or land)
  • Savage Stomp - 2G - U (Hunt the Weak, G if dino)
  • Regisaur Alpha - 3RG - R (4/4, makes 3/3 trample, haste to dinos)
  • Gishath, Sun’s Avatar - 5RGW - M (7/6 haste vig trample, hit = reveal for dinos direct to play)
All Pirate Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Pirates)
  • Dreamcaller Siren - 2UU - R (3/3 flash high flying, taps 2 nonland if pirate)
  • Siren’s Ruse - 1U - C (Cloudshift, draw if it's a pirate)
  • Lookout’s Dispersal - 2U - U (Convolute, cheaper if pirate)
  • Fathom Fleet Captain - 1B - R (2/1 menace, 2 to make 2/2 menace on attack if another nontoken pirate)
  • March of the Drowned - B - C (raise dead, can get 2 pirates)
  • Headstrong Brute - 2R - C (3/3 no block, menace if pirate)
  • Lightning-Rig Crew - 2R - U (0/5 scurv-o-alchemist)
  • Fiery Cannonade - 2R - U (Pirateclasm, instant)
  • Dire Fleet Captain - RB - U (2/2, +1/+1 on attack for other attacking Pirates)
  • Admiral Beckett Brass - 1UBR - M (3/3 pirate lord, steal nonland if hit with 3 pirates)
  • Fell Flagship - 3 - R (+1/+0 to Pirates, 3/3 specter, crew 3) 
  • Pirate’s Cutlass - 3 - C (+2/+1, attach to pirate on ETB, equip 2)
Vampire Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Vampires)
  • Duskborne Skymarcher - W - U (flying, vampire-only infantry veteran)
  • Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle - 2W - R (nontoken vamp attack = one 1/1 lifelink)
  • Vampire’s Zeal - W - C (+2+2, 1st strike to vamp)
  • Anointed Deacon - 4B - C (3/3, +2/+0 to one vamp each attack)
  • Bishop of the Bloodstained - 3BB - U (3/3, ETB lose life = # of vamps)
  • Deathless Ancient - 4BB - U (4/4 flier, tap 3 vamps to rebuy)
  • Sanctum Seeker - 2BB - R (3/4, drain 1 for each vamp attack)
Merfolk Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Merfolk)
  • Shaper Apprentice - 1U - C (2/1 maybe flying)
  • River Sneak - 1U - U (1/1 unblockable, +1+1 EOT for Merfolk)
  • Deeproot Waters - 2U - U (Oketra’s Merfolk Monument)
  • Kopala, Warden of Waves - 1UU - R (2/2 kira)
  • Kumena’s Speaker - G - U (1/1, 2/2 if merfolk or island)
  • Vineshaper Mystic - 2G - U (1/3, Support 2 for Merfolk)
  • Jade Guardian - 3G - C (2/2 hexproof, +1+1 counter to merfolk ETB)
  • River Herald’s Boon - 1G - C (+1+1 counter on creature, another one on merfolk)
  • And they can't be forced to Walk the Plank.
Diversity
  • Grim Captain’s Call - 2B - U (raise dead one of each tribe)
Choose One
  • Pillar of Origins - 2 - U (fixing/ramp rock for chosen type only)
  • Vanquisher’s Banner - 5 - R (choose type: Anthem + Zendikar Resurgent)


Let's dive down deeper on each tribe and how their payoffs shape how we'll draft them. (Or jump to the bottom for TL;DR conclusions.)



Dinosaurs
All Dinosaur Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Dinosaurs (snub the intro pack Snubhorn and Sun-Blessed Mount))
  • Kinjalli’s Caller - W - C (0/3 dino-speaker)
  • Imperial Lancer - W - U (1/1 maybe doublestrike)
  • Priest of the Wakening Sun - W - R (1/1 reveal to gain 2 / 3WW tutor)
  • Pterodon Knight - 3W - C (3/3 maybe flying)
  • Wakening Sun’s Avatar - 5WWW - M (7/7 wrath)
  • Otepec Huntmaster - 1R - U (1/2 dinospeaker + tap for haste to dino)
  • Tilonalli’s Knight - 1R - C (2/2, 3/3 on attack if dino)
  • Thrash of Raptors - 3R - C (3/3, 5/3 trample if dino)
  • Dinosaur Stampede - 2R - U (trumpet blast & trample to dinos)
  • Drover of the Mighty - 1G - C (gemhide, 3/3 if dino)
  • Thundering Spineback - 5GG - U (5/5, dino lord, 5G make a dino)
  • Commune with Dinosaurs - G - C (top 5, pick dino or land)
  • Savage Stomp - 2G - U (Hunt the Weak, G if dino)
  • Regisaur Alpha - 3RG - R (4/4, makes 3/3 trample, haste to dinos)
  • Gishath, Sun’s Avatar - 5RGW - M (7/6 haste vig trample, hit = reveal for dinos direct to play)
6 of these get their full bonus from just one creature of the type, 6 reward having as many of that type as possible, and 3 are somewhere in the middle.

The threshold-one tribal payoffs skew towards the lower end of the curve, whereas the scalable rewards are higher up on the curve. This suggests that the more aggressive Dinosaur decks won't need to prioritize Dinosaurs above better cards of other types.

The R/W Dinosaurs overlap the aggressive R/W creatures overall, and the R/W tribal payoffs are almost all threshold-one as the cost reducers seem less important here. I don't think I'd want Kinjalli's Caller in my tight R/W builds, but enough of the 5+ drops could make it compelling. Otepec Huntmaster seems better and may be a fine inclusion with a few Aerosaurs and Aegisaurs to ramp out with haste, but there's an overflow of good, aggressive 2-drops here anyway. So I think most R/W decks won't have to go out of their way to have enough Dinosaurs to turn on their Knights, so they won't really be drafted as "Dinosaur tribal". This also means that there are fewer incentives for a base-R/W deck to splash Green.

The W/G Dinosaurs have a much higher-end curve and will probably want to lean on Kinjalli's Caller for ramp and thus go deeper into a linear tribal deck. Belligerent Brontodon seems mediocre, and beware that it downgrades Raptor Companion and Ravenous Daggertooth; its combo with the 1/7 Looming Altisaur is unsubtle but could be effective. Splashing red may occur most often in this base for card quality and on-tribe bombs (with Raging Swordtooth and Regisaur Alpha as the multicolored pickups).

The R/G Dinosaurs are similarly linear, but with better gold payoffs. Bellowing Aegisaur is a very attractive white splash, particularly with Enrage enablers. This deck has way more ways to abuse Ranging Raptors than G/W and that's a pull towards it being the better ramp color pair. I think I'll be more inclined to get into red than white after starting with a strong green Dinosaur tribal card.

Pirates
All Pirate Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Pirates)
  • Dreamcaller Siren - 2UU - R (3/3 flash high flying, taps 2 nonland if pirate)
  • Siren’s Ruse - 1U - C (Cloudshift, draw if it's a pirate)
  • Lookout’s Dispersal - 2U - U (Convolute, cheaper if pirate)
  • Fathom Fleet Captain - 1B - R (2/1 menace, 2 to make 2/2 menace on attack if another nontoken pirate)
  • March of the Drowned - B - C (raise dead, can get 2 pirates)
  • Headstrong Brute - 2R - C (3/3 no block, menace if pirate)
  • Lightning-Rig Crew - 2R - U (0/5 scurv-o-alchemist)
  • Fiery Cannonade - 2R - U (Pirateclasm, instant)
  • Dire Fleet Captain - RB - U (2/2, +1/+1 on attack for other attacking Pirates)
  • Admiral Beckett Brass - 1UBR - M (3/3 pirate lord, steal nonland if hit with 3 pirates)
  • Fell Flagship - 3 - R (+1/+0 to Pirates, 3/3 specter, crew 3) 
  • Pirate’s Cutlass - 3 - C (+2/+1, attach to pirate on ETB, equip 2)
4 of these get their full bonus from just one creature of the type, 6 reward having as many of that type as possible, and 2 are somewhere in the middle.

The scalable linear rewards are concentrated strongly in red, and the strongest Pirate payoffs are also in red, as the blue and black cards seem to have less overall distance between their floor and ceiling.

So the U/B Pirate deck really doesn't have much reason to prioritize Pirates. Of all the color pairs so far, U/B has the most freedom from a tribal pull. I'm skeptical about it being a dedicated Treasure deck to any real depth, though the uncommon Deadeye Plunderers supports some skew towards Treasure cards, which would be an indirect Pirate pull. Otherwise, I think this color will usually draft mostly agnostic of creature type.

U/R Pirates have a good curve of Raid but may not be heavy on Pirate tribal. Depending on how many of the three 2R Pirate tribal cards above they have, evasive non-Pirates could be welcome to the crew. Fiery Cannonade in particular would be the biggest pull away from small non-Pirates and towards a more all-Pirate strategy, which looks supported here.

B/R Pirates have the lowest curve of Pirates and perhaps the most reasons to stay Pirate-focused. The uncommon Dire Fleet Captain isn't a huge payoff on its own, but R/B aggro might also be the color pair to want Pirate's Cutlass the most. Again, the presence of Fiery Cannonade in one's draft pile may be the biggest factor in creature type prioritization.

Vampires
Vampire Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Vampires)
  • Duskborne Skymarcher - W - U (flying, vampire-only infantry veteran)
  • Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle - 2W - R (nontoken vamp attack = one 1/1 lifelink)
  • Vampire’s Zeal - W - C (+2+2, 1st strike to vamp)
  • Anointed Deacon - 4B - C (3/3, +2/+0 to one vamp each attack)
  • Bishop of the Bloodstained - 3BB - U (3/3, ETB lose life = # of vamps)
  • Deathless Ancient - 4BB - U (4/4 flier, tap 3 vamps to rebuy)
  • Sanctum Seeker - 2BB - R (3/4, drain 1 for each vamp attack)
1 of these gets their full bonus from just one creature of the type, 4 reward having as many of that type as possible, 1 is somewhere in the middle, and 1 of them is Vampire's Zeal with a truly negligible tribal bonus.

This is very few payoffs compared to the two major three-color tribes, even when adjusting for the fact that they span three colors. Anointed Deacon fits well with the various common lifelink and flying Vampires but doesn't benefit much from a heavy Vampire density. The two uncommons pull towards heavy Vampire commitment, but I'm skeptical that the payoffs are worth going too far out of the way for, versus picking something else over those uncommons. Deathless Ancient is unique in that you miss out on the extra value entirely if you don't draw enough Vampire density to have three in play. Sanctum Seeker looks like the most powerful pull, but most of the time, I expect to put little value on the Vampire creature type in-draft and to not be overly inclined to pair white and black together.

Merfolk
Merfolk Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Merfolk)
  • Shaper Apprentice - 1U - C (2/1 maybe flying)
  • River Sneak - 1U - U (1/1 unblockable, +1+1 EOT for Merfolk)
  • Deeproot Waters - 2U - U (Oketra’s Merfolk Monument)
  • Kopala, Warden of Waves - 1UU - R (2/2 kira)
  • Kumena’s Speaker - G - U (1/1, 2/2 if merfolk or island)
  • Vineshaper Mystic - 2G - U (1/3, Support 2 for Merfolk)
  • Jade Guardian - 3G - C (2/2 hexproof, +1+1 counter to merfolk ETB)
  • River Herald’s Boon - 1G - C (+1+1 counter on creature, another one on merfolk)
  • And they can't be forced to Walk the Plank.
5 of these get their full bonus from just one creature of the type, 3 reward having as many of that type as possible, and 0 are somewhere in the middle.

This is about as light as Vampires. Here, 2 of the 5 threshold-one tribal cards don't always need any other Merfolk (Kumena's Speaker and Jade Guardian). The 3 scalable reward cards all feel pretty weak; River Sneak and Deeproot Waters pulls towards more Merfolk but don't seem to be that far above par even when firing on all cylinders, and Kopala's effect is relatively underwhelming for a rare lord payoff. I expect to only slightly prioritize Merfolk in a U/G draft most of the time, but moreso than I prioritize Vampires, because having 1 Merfolk in play for River Herald's Boon and Vineshaper Mystic seems important.

Diversity
  • Grim Captain’s Call - 2B - U (raise dead one of each tribe)
B/G is the one two-color pair that covers all four tribes, and based on the overall medium level of tribal in the format, at least a few seats at every table should be mostly nontribal, so I don't think B/G or U/W are undraftable. In a B/G deck with a wide enough spread of creature types, I think this card gets good.


Choose One
  • Pillar of Origins - 2 - U (fixing/ramp rock for chosen type only)
  • Vanquisher’s Banner - 5 - R (choose type: Anthem + Zendikar Resurgent)
I think Pillar will fit fine into dino decks that want ramp/fixing. Pirate decks probably want it less because they're splashing less often and ramping less hard, but it could show up in some of the looser drafts, and it does pump Deadeye Plunderers. I think it looks completely nonviable in Vampires or Merfolk decks, which don't need the fixing or ramp and will often be less tribally focused.

Vanquisher's Banner seems pretty strong overall and should be a reason to tribe harder into whatever tribe you're tribing.

I will note for completeness that there is an extremely minor amount of secondary tribe overlap spanning the four main tribes, such that you might technically be correct to call something like Human, Knight, Soldier, etc. on these artifacts a nonzero amount of the time, so, enjoy that.


Conclusions

  • The importance of tribal focus by tribe: Dinosaurs > Pirates >> Merfolk > Vampires
  • Dinosaurs' tribal focus looks important in R/G and G/W, but not R/W.
  • R/W Dinosaur decks can likely get enough Dinosaurs for their threshold-one payoffs without going out of their way.
  • Pirate density matters more in B/R than in U/R, and much more than in U/B.
  • Fiery Cannonade looks like a pivotal card in creating a need to prioritize Pirates.
  • Vampires' tribal pulls come almost entirely from two uncommons (Bishop of the Bloodstained & Deathless Ancient), and one rare Sanctum Seeker.
  • Most Merfolk tribal cards need only 0 or 1 other Merfolk to be at near full capacity.

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