My Take on Limited Resources' Ixalan Rare and Mythic Rare Set Review

Continuing from My Take on Limited Resources' Ixalan Common and Uncommon Set Review, here are my nitpicky takes on their Rare and Mythic Rare Set Review.

• Ashes of the Abhorrent -- Given an F, and the first ability was said to literally do nothing. I was curious how many cards in the format it actually interacts with. I took a pass of the full set and there are two cards affected: Deathless Ancient & Repeating Barrage. I'm certainly comfortable with an F at that level of narrowness, but if you ever face a deck that somehow has two copies of those cards, or grindy control mirrors where one of those cards is known and your deck is unequipped to permanently deal with it in any other way, it's a conceivable hyperniche sideboard option to deal with part of those cards.
• Axis of Mortality -- The synergy with the two uncommon white vampires, particularly Glorifier of Dusk, was missed. Cast Axis, then with the trigger on the stack, make the Glorifier fly a bunch of times and threaten a lethal attack with it. Now, I don't think this brings the card into the good range, but I think it's a bad maindeck playable for decks with Glorifier. Particularly in lifelink mirrors, this combo could pull some weight. The normal use of the card will usually be a nonzero-value backup plan. Especially if our deck is slower in the matchup and we're likely to fall behind early before stabilizing, the Axis might conceivably be a good 6-drop in some game paths. Overall this looks firmly in the range of bad niche playable and I'd give it a Build-Around D.
• Legion's Landing -- Given a C+ for reasons I don't disagree with, but my gut is just a little higher. I think the value of the flipped land feels well-positioned in a combat-centric format and can take over a game to the extent where going out of one's way to flip it could be worthwhile sometimes. I'm at B-.
• Priest of the Wakening Sun -- This was given a Sideboard D. It's clearly at least a bad maindeck playable in many white decks, and I think the sideboard value is a bit higher. If it hits on turn 1 and triggers several times, it can pass the threshold of meaningful life gain, all while retaining the optionality of trading for an X/1 or cashing it in later for a card. I'm at C- overall, ideally mostly as a sideboard option (but I think it outperforms D out of the sideboard).
• Wakening Sun's Avatar -- Given a flat D. I think build-around C+/B- is far more accurate. LR throws around the build-around designation for far less, and this is clearly an impactful 8-drop in a format where a W/G deck might consider ramping to 8.
• Sanguine Sacrament -- Given an F, but I could see it playing two niche sideboard roles, admittedly at the Sideboard D level: (1) a midrange or controlling deck that can reliably almost fully lock down the board except for opposing slow reach elements (e.g. Lightning-Rig Crew) or (2) a midrange or controlling pure board stall mirror where decking with this is viable. These will depend greatly on the specific cards in the matchup, rather than just being a generalization to be made about archetypes or color pairs.
• Arcane Adaptation -- Given an F. For completeness, I looked at the tribal payoffs and... yeah, nothing is even close to being even a 0.1% niche application for this card. F!
• Dreamcaller Siren -- Marshall gave it a B and Luis an A-. My gut is definitely B. This doesn't block very many creatures in the format at all. Look at all of the fliers; Dreamcaller Siren trumps the few smaller fliers but trades off with Pterodon Knight, Wind Strider, Imperial Aerosaur, and is outright trumped by Shining Aerosaur, Air Elemental, Deathless Ancient, Glorifier of Dusk. The contextual size matchups make this a solid chunk weaker in a game where its caster is behind.
• Herald of Secret Streams -- They gave this a Build-Around B, but I think the ceiling is lower. This format feels like it devolves to creature races often, possibly even moreso with a U/G Merfolk deck, and unblockability is less critical in those cases, and that's where this card falls the most short of expectations. There aren't too many ways to make this grant unblockability to multiple creatures beyond River Heralds' Boon, Shapers of Nature, and Vineshaper Mystic, and if it's only giving ~1 creature unblockability, I don't think the average payoff for Herald is at the B level with the base rate on the body being so poor. I just finished a draft with 2x Herald and 4x River Heralds' Boon and I was still not impressed by the Herald. I think this card is closer to a Build-Around C+.
• Search for Azcanta -- This was given a flat D on the basis of a permanent Scry 1 every turn for two mana was not worth a card. I'm higher on the front side. I think two mana is about the right rate and that it should generate a card's worth of value, at least at the level of a weak playable. The flip side is some upside, at least in certain decks in slower matchups. I'd give this a C- and expect it to be even better in some matchups. LR went on to give Arguel's Blood Fast a  Sideboard C grade for use in control mirrors and from that perspective, I think this card is even better. 
• Sword-Point Diplomacy -- Marshall gave it a showy F and LSV a D. The F is clearly wrong, and a bad Browbeat should be a weak playable in aggressive decks. Worth noting here that consensus is emerging around this format feeling like one that's low on solid playables, so bad playables will happen more often. I'm on D.
• Captivating Crew -- Consensus seems to be that this is among the top cards in the set, so I was surprised that Marshall started it at B+ noting that it was clunky in his experience. LSV had it at A and they settled on A-. I can't imagine this card being worse than A- and my gut is with the masses that it looks like one of the best cards in the set. I vote A. A contextual point that I think they may have overlooked is that hitting 8 (enabling gamebreaking lines of cast+use, or threatening to use twice in one turn) gets easier with Treasure and with Explore.
• Tilonalli's Skinshifter -- This one got an F from LSV and a D from Marshall. This one's pretty bad and I don't think any sort of deck wants this, but it's not a blank card in any deck and isn't strictly unplayable... pretty close to that, though. D-.
• Shadowed Caravel -- Given a Build-Around F, which might just be right for this one, but I think it cracks into the D-/D range with perhaps 4-5 Explore creatures, particularly the repeatable rare ones. Granted, we're still talking about a card that's probably still worse than a Queen's Bay Soldier, but Build-Around D- seems more technically correct. The best kind of correct.

Ixalan Limited Dive Down: Mana Curve by Color

One of the more important underdiscussed defining factors of a Limited format is the mana curve available for creatures in each color. Knowing which color combinations are, for example, more likely to clog on 4-drops, or perhaps need to prioritize 2-drops, will inform close draft decisions for aware players.

To analyze Ixalan's mana curves, I laid out each color's creatures with 3x of each common and 1x of each uncommon creature, an approximation of the true proportion, in photos below. I've included the multicolored uncommons overlapping each color to help find the relative curve importance of each color pair's gold card, as well as artifact creatures and vehicles to see which colors' curves might rely upon them most.

Let's dive down deeper on what we can learn about which spots on the curve to prioritize and deprioritize for each color.

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White

White has a notable high density at the 4- and 5-drop slots relative to other colors. This notches down the value over replacement of the better common drops over the weaker ones and introduces an extra skew towards lower-curve while drafting. E.g. Looming Altisaur looks to be the worst 4-drop, and the clog means it's even less likely to make the cut or to add much value during sideboarding than it would be otherwise. Thus decks that want it don't have to worry much about other decks taking it. This also makes the good uncommon 4- and 5-drops a little less valuable over replacement; Glorifier of Dusk is strong, but often it will only upgrading a Shining Aerosaur or Sunrise seeker, so it could be less impactful of a draft pick than a unique effect or a spot lower on the curve.

The 3-drop creatures feature some conditional cards in Queen's Commission, a card that looks to be be a weak 3-drop in many decks, and of course Legion Conquistador which will often be unplayable. So Territorial Hammerskull is even more critical to the white curve, and the uncommons are less likely to just be a minor upgrade over another 3-drop. Sleek Schooner is an extra good fit in white due to crewability by 1/1 tokens.


Blue

Blue has an aggressive skew in Ixalan, but is relatively light on 1- and 2-drops. Siren Stormtamer being the most (/only?) playable 1-drop earns it a good bit of extra prioritization due to two different in-color contextual features: two different blue 2-drop raid creatures that would be great to play on turn 2, and Storm Sculptor getting a lot better with cheaper creatures to bounce.

While blue, like white, is more likely to be cutting 5-drops, the Crew 2 of Dusk Legion Dreadnought seems to line up well with a few of the blue 2/X ETB creatures. A speculative caveat on Deadeye Plunderers is that it could be really good in some decks, but in decks without as much Treasure synergy, it may only be slightly upgrading a different 5-drop.

Black

Black has a pretty high density of 1- and 2-drops that are mostly playable...ish. The fact that many are on the weaker end of playable means that a black drafter could get them quite late. So black decks can feel free to skew a little more towards higher-end cards during the draft and be confident that they'll usually be able to pick up something to fill out their early curve.

The 3-drop slot is quite light, so without another color complementing this curve hole, black is more likely to end up with fewer 3s than ideal and extra 2s to compensate. If the 2s are indeed a little weaker than desired for 2-drops, they will cover a small 3-slot particularly poorly.

A black deck that isn't interested in Vampire synergy has slimmer pickings among the 5- and 6-drops.

Red

Red too has a lot of 2-drops, and of better overall quality than black. The two multicolor uncommons aren't adding as much value over replacement as they would seem to without this context.

Headstrong Brute seems to be by far the strongest common 3-drop for an aggressive deck and likely merits extra prioritization for that.

Green

In both the 2-drop and the 3-drop slot, green's creatures are mostly relatively of the same overall power level, but they do rather different things. A ramp deck that ends up with Deeproot Warriors and Ravenous Daggertooth instead of Ixalli's Diviners and Blossom Dryads seems like it would be quite a bit worse off, and vice versa for the aggressive decks. My sense from looking at this is that green's identity is more split than I first thought.

Surprisingly for green, the 5-drop slot is rather empty, with Spike-Tailed Ceratops looking fairly weak. The 6-drop option of Colossal Dreadmaw is much stronger. This could lead to some weird holes in midrange and ramp decks. It also means that the short-term ramp impact of Blossom Dryad and New Horizons is muted, with no good prospects for a turn 4 5-drop.

I still have no sense of the fit of the 8-drop Ancient Brontodon into the format, but there are fewer ramp payoffs in green in the 5-7-drop range than I expected, so having one of these might be where some green decks want to be.

Curve Observations by Two-Color Pair
Of course, real drafts are usually two-color pairs. Some pairs lead colors to even out the curve disparities of the other, while others amplify holes or clogs. The Creature Curve Complementarity Ratings are not necessarily a grade for the overall color pair, but rather a representation of how much focus and care must be taken during draft to construct an ideal mana curve, i.e. Blue-Black's A rating means this pair has a lot of flexibility on curve considerations in-draft, and White-Blue's D rating means a White-Blue drafter have to work hard to fill out the early curve with suitable creatures and avoid the traffic jam at 5-drops.

• White-Blue
• Sadly, none of the white 1-drops seem like a good fit in white-blue. Overall, a lot of the creatures don't seem to complement each other well; Pterodon Knights have trouble getting off the ground, the other evasive creatures weaken the impact of Territorial Hammerskull. I was hopeful that the lack of multicolored uncommon and tribal support wouldn't nerf White-Blue, but it doesn't look good from this analysis. None of the 4-drops seem like great fits, and there are too many of them. Also note that this color pair has the biggest clog at the 5-drop slot.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: D
• Blue-Black
• The black 1-drops and 2-drops seem like much better fits than white's overall into a Blue-Black strategy. The common black 1-drops also enable Raid well, which means that Raid-heavy blue decks could find support in black as well as red. Blue's 3-drops also fit well and fill that hole in black. The black 5-drops don't synergize, but the blue 5-drops look great. Blue-black decks should rarely have to scrape for a playable density of synergistic creatures at all points on the curve.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: A
• Black-Red
• There are a lot of 2-drops overall, but quite a few of the them don't have a lot of synergy here (Tilonalli's Knight, Desperate Castaways, Nest Robber). Nonetheless, this color pair has a janky aggro bail-out path in its early drops. Headstrong Brute looks like a high curve priority here. The middle and upper ends of the curve seem well-complimented, but will rely upon red for the best 5- and 6-drops for an aggressive strategy.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: B
• Red-Green
• This looks to be the pair with the highest count of playable 2-drops, so there may be a secret low-curve deck in this pair. Assuming the typical route is more midrange/ramp, the 3s and 4s complement each other well, and Sun-Crowned Hunters is a second solid 6-drop for a ramp strategy, but there's no great 5 outside of the uncommons, and that's a notable hole, making Raging Swordtooth extra important.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: B
• Green-White
• These look to line up well. Kilonalli's Caller will fit some green decks, the better 2- and 3-drops will come from green, and white provides good options at the 4-drop slot and that critical 5-drop green hole. Each color has commons that could be subpar filler at various spots, but overall these two colors cover each other's bases well.  
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: A
• White-Black
• There are a lot of vaguely-playable 1-drops for a scrappier low-curve version of White-Black. The 2-drops aren't great fits. The sketchier white vampire 3-drops will fill the hole left by black's, but it would be hard to have a good curve without including Queen's Commission and Legion Conquistador, so if the deck doesn't offer enough synergy to make these cards good, it could be a weak spot; Territorial Hammerskull is still king here. The 4-drops are clogged enough where the off-theme ones should rarely make the cut and where Call to the Feast won't be a huge priority in the less-synergistic decks. The 5-drops are pretty crowded, too.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: C
• Black-Green
• Another weird marriage of curves in an unsupported color pair. Multiple black commons seem off-theme with anything the green cards would do. For that reason, this deck may more commonly be heavier green than black. This is the ostensible home of the Lurking Chupacabra, with both black and green having two commons with Explore versus each other colors' one. If building around that card, a curve based on the Explore creatures with generic support from others seems to fill out OK, but still with a notable hole on 5. If trying to live the Grim Captain's Call dream, it looks like there's at least 2 of each of the 4 tribes at common that form an OK curve foundation together. Without either of these synergies, it'll just be a pile of decent creatures, but, other than the 5s, the curve is well-covered. Dusk Legion Dreadnought seems like it may fit best here.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: C
• Green-Blue
• The aggressive Green-Blue ideal seems to balance out well between these two colors. There should be plenty of decent fallback options to have a beatdown deck of approximately half Merfolk. The 2-drops are fairly interchangeable and plenty are available, and the number of desirable 4- and 5- drops seems about right for a lower curve. Worth noting that it looks like it might be harder to have a fallback midrange strategy in this color pair without sacrificing its creature quality and synergy.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: A
• Blue-Red
• Fire Shrine Keeper could fit here sometimes as a Raid enabler. Fathom Fleet Firebrand and Shipwreck Looter are the only common 2-drops on-theme, which is not ideal for an aggressive deck, and the fallback options may have few synergies in this color pair. Most of the 3-drops seem fine in this strategy, but the 4s are rougher fits; extra priority to the uncommon Marauding Looter. The blue evasive creatures enable the 5-drop Storm Fleet creatures well. 
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: C
• Red-White
• Most of the available 2-drops seem of relatively similar power level, so Sky Terror should perhaps be seen more as a color signal than a high-value-over-replacement addition to a Red-White deck. This color pair could often have a super-low, heavy-2 curve option, but the higher points of the curve all have a few options, too. 3 is a bit light, so Frenzied Raptor seems like it'll often make the cut since it synergizes with the knights.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: B

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Conclusions

• White clogs at 4 and 5 and has conditional 3s. Green is the smoothest curve pairing with white and blue looks like a really rough pairing.
• Blue is light on 1- and 2-drops given its aggressive skew in this set. Black and green both complement very well.
• Black has tons of weak playable 1- and 2-drops that should reliably go late in draft, but is light on 3s. Blue and red offer the most reliable curve pairings.
• Red clogs at 2, so the two gold uncommon red 2-drops have lower value over replacement than they would in a vacuum. None of the pairings with red present inherent curve risk.
• Green has plenty of good 2- and 3-drops, but they don't fit all strategies. Green has a big hole at 5, any other color helps fill it, with blue and white being the smoothest complements to green.
• Specific cards to notch up in priority during draft for curve purposes: Duskborne Skymarcher, Territorial Hammerskull, Siren Stormtamer, Skymarch Bloodleter, Headstrong Brute, Kumena's Speaker, Snapping Sailback, Marauding Looter, Raging Swordtooth
• Specific cards to notch down in priority during draft for curve purposes: Looming Altisaur, Shining Aerosaur, Sunrise Seeker, Wind Strider, Desperate Castaways, Nest Robber, Ixalli's Keeper, Dire Fleet Captain, Sky Terror

Mistakes I've Made in Ixalan Limited

I will use this post to track every realized mistake that I make in any draft, build, or game of Ixalan Limited. I'll include all degrees of infraction, from minor, sub-1% edges missed to absentminded punts.

In doing so, I plan to increase my consciousness of the patterns of errors I make and review them periodically so that I can get improve. By sharing it publicly, I also hope that some of these will be helpful for others to learn from my mistakes, particularly on the more card- or format-dependent nuances.

This is an experiment. Is it interesting? If you have any feedback or ideas, let me know in the comments or on Twitter. And if anyone else decides to keep their own list, let me know, too. I'd like to follow it.

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1. I messed up what is likely the default Vraska, Relic Seeker play pattern in the same very minor way twice. During games where Vraska has been in play for multiple turns and completely dominated the board, I made the mistake of starting to chip in with some creatures once I had made enough 2/2s while my opponent had a high life total. However, all of these games ended via Vraska's ultimate doing double-digit damage to bring my opponent to 1, and in retrospect, this game arc was foreseeable, so trying to chip in any damage prior to that was probably incorrect even though I was still leaving back plenty of defense for the vast majority of game tree branches. (So excited to kick this off with such a narrow one!)
2. In a Game 1, I unnecessarily revealed a Wind Strider (3/3 flash flying) in a situation where I had truly no outs to win, and conceded shortly thereafter.
3. I forgot that I knew the identity of one of my opponents' cards in hand three turns after it was revealed via Explore and kept on top. I hadn't taken any notes about the known information because it was a paper Prerelease. Online, I'd always write it down. But, no excuses. Explore will mean that known cards in hand will occur pretty often, so it's a good time to get into good habits on tracking this.
4. I forgot that various Vampire tokens have Lifelink, in a way that did not impact the game.
5. In a game in which I was >95% to win and in which I was relaxed and joking around, I committed more creatures to the board than necessary, immediately realizing afterwards that there were Wrath effects in the format. My opponent had not shown any and did not go on to cast any.
6. In a game where I was >98% to win with an active Vraska, at 12 life and with no cards remaining in library with CMC > 4, I chose to send in an attacker so that I could draw a card off of Ruin Raider. I did not need to draw any specific cards to win, nor did I need more card advantage, and there are runs of cards my opponent could have drawn, including one known card in deck (Sanctum Seeker) where reducing my life total could have led to a loss.
7. Against a 3-color Pirate deck, while I was playing a deck of mostly Pirates, I committed a 2nd small non-Pirate creature to the board in a situation where it would not be immediately impactful, and I did this without considering Pirateclasm (Fiery Cannonade). Had I considered it, I would have held back the 2nd creature. My opponent went on to have the Pirateclasm.
8. At the prerelease, during deck construction, I underestimated the color-fixing value that 8 treasure cards would offer me in my U/B/g/w deck. I could have started 17 lands instead of 18.
9. Against a U/R opponent, I blocked their attacking 4/3 with my 2/3 and then cast my pump spell. If he had held a burn spell or bounce spell, the game state was such that he would have cast it before attacking, so I should have cast my pump spell first to see if he had countermagic.
10. Game 1 against a B/W deck where I was racing with U/w against his Ruin Raider and I was substantially behind, I skewed my strategy towards leaving his Ruin Raider alive, hoping he lost a few big life chunks to it, and racing with unblockable creatures and bounce. He ended up playing gaining life off of 3 different white cards. Had I considered the density of white cards with incidental life gain, I would have killed his Ruin Raider.
11. With a U/G deck containing 4 copies of River Heralds' Boon, I played my first two matches somehow forgetting that Boon could put both of its counters on a single Merfolk. I have no idea how I would temporarily lose this basic comprehension on one of the defining cards of the format, and it's embarrassing, but it's good to know that this degree of mistake is still in my range when I'm playing tired.
12. I played Slash of Talons after the first strike damage step to finish off a creature whose damage in the normal damage step had no way of mattering.
13. In the lategame, I forgot to reattach an equipment that fell off of a creature that died after I attacked and F6'd after blocks.
14. I missed an attack with my 3/2 into their 2/3 that I should have made in a ground vs. sky race.
15. In the final turns of a race, I paid 2 life to jump my Glorifier of Dusk to team up with my 2/3 flier to essentially trade a Vampire's Zeal for my opponent's 4/4 Sky Terror. My opponent was also attacking with a vigilant Glorifier of Dusk of their own, and I should have considered the other option of blocking their Glorifier with my 2/3 flier and trading the Zeal for that, as that would remove their Glorifier as a blocker (and my 2/3 flier was Kinjalli's Sunwing, so they'd have guaranteed no blockers) to allow me to get a better attack in next turn. Not cut and dry, but I think this would have put me in better shape to win even though it left their 4/4 flying menace alive, and I was too fixated on killing it, possibly because it was a "2 for 1" because the Sky Terror had Swashbuckling on it, which is clearly a bad heuristic here.
16. After my opponent cast River's Rebuke, I unthinkingly replayed two small creatures instead of one big creature, which was immediately wrong after I considered the board state.
17. Against an opponent with a known River's Rebuke, I held two lands in my hand in the midgame. Known River's Rebuke is actually a reason to leave zero lands in hand in situations where you'd be able to play an extra creature post-Rebuke if the top card of your library turns out to be a land. Read the board and play out your last land from hand accordingly.
18. I had a Colossal Dreadmaw and two 3/3s against a 4/4 vigilance and a 3/4 flier. Both of us were at 10 life. I attacked with everything, my opponent double-blocked the Dreadmaw, and I chose to kill the 3/4 flier instead of the 4/4 vigilance without really thinking about it. This was immediately clear as wrong given that I was light on topdecks to let my 3/3s break through the vigilance creature and that my opponent's 3/4 flier would almost certainly have to be on defense.
19. I put my extra River Heralds' Boon counter on a smaller creature instead of my Colossal Dreadmaw against a deck with known Looming Altisaur, and my Dreadmaw went on to get brickwalled.
20. I was at 5 life against a blue deck with Raiders' Wake and 3 power of creatures in play. I made an attack that emptied my hand and would let me win next turn, leaving back just a 1/1 blocker and a freshly-cast Bonded Horncrest. Since I emptied my hand, I thought my opponent would need both a removal spell and a pump spell to kill me, but I failed to realize that a bounce spell for my 1/1 would kill me... and I knew they had one from prior Explores.
21. Nothing card-specific at all, just clicked through a block without taking a safe, free block of a small creature with my big creature.
22. I played the last land out of my hand to get an extra theoretical pump on a Fathom Fleet Firebrand, but there's no way that would have mattered in any way combat would play out. This left the last card in my hand as a Pious Interdiction that I could cast on the following turn to swing the race. Combat allowed my opponent to trade off a Deadeye Tormentor when he had a face-up March of the Drowned in his hand, so I should have held the land.
23. In a race, I sent in a Headstrong Brute unnecessarily under two fuzzy simultaneous heuristics that (1) Headstrong Brute cannot block anyway (2) I'm attacking with my vehicle, too. But my vehicle was a Dusk Legion Dreadnought that would not die during this combat, and I didn't consider that it would have been better to hold the Brute back to add an additional blocker next turn.
24. When my opponent had 6 lands and had chosen to keep a two-drop Dire Fleet Hoarder on top from an Explore, which was an unusual choice at this point in the midgame, I didn't properly consider the increased likelihood of Fathom Fleet Cutthroat (4 drop + 2 drop).
25. When I hit my fifth land, I cast Wind Strider (on my opponent's end step) instead of Air Elemental when there was no realistic ambush potential for the Strider.

Timeline Legend

(1-8) 2017.09.23 - Prerelease Sealed Deck, 3-1
(9) 2017.09.25 - Competitive Draft League, 3-0

(10) 2017.09.26 - Competitive Draft League, 1-1
(11) 2017.09.28 - Intermediate Draft League, 1-2

(12-17) 2017.09.30 - Intermediate Draft League, 3-0
(18-20) 2017.10.12 - casual paper Sealed Deck tournament, 3-0
(21) 2017.10.17 - Intermediate Draft League, 2-1
(22) 2017.11.10 - Intermediate Draft League, 2-1

(23) 2017.11.11 - Intermediate Draft League, 2-1
(24-25) 2018.01.02 - Intermediate Draft League, 3-0

Ixalan Limited Dive Down: Instants

Here is a quick reference list of every instant-speed card in Ixalan. (After I wrote mine up, I saw MTGGoldfish's and validated my pass with it. Theirs is much prettier to bookmark. I always keep this list in front of me for the first several drafts of any new set.)

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White

• Demystify - W - C
• Slash of Talons - W - C (2 to combat)
• Vampire’s Zeal - W - C (+2+2, 1st strike to vamp)
• Sheltering Light - W - U (indestructible scry)
• Rallying Roar - 2W - U (+1+1 untap)
• Ritual of Rejuvenation - 2W - C (gain 4 draw)
• Settle the Wreckage - 2WW - R (Path all attackers)
• Bright Reprisal - 4W - U (Second Thoughts)
• Sanguine Sacrament - XWW - R (gain 2X)

Blue

• Dive Down - U - C (+0/+3 hexproof)
• Opt - U - C
• Spell Pierce - U - C
• Siren’s Ruse - 1U - C (cloudshift)
• Perilous Voyage - 1U - U (Disperse, scry 2 if <=2)
• Depths of Desire - 2U - C (unsummon/treasure)
• Lookout’s Dispersal - 2U - U (Convolute, 2drop if pirate)
• Cancel - 1UU - C
• Dreamcaller Siren - 2UU - R ( 3/3 flash high flying, taps 2 nonland if 2 pirates)
• Run Aground - 3U - C (Repel, hits artifacts)
• Spell Swindle - 3UU - R (mana drain with treasure)
• Wind Strider - 4U - C (3/3 flying flash)

Black

• Skulduggery - B - C (+1+1 & -1-1)
• Bloodcrazed Paladin - 1B - R (1/1 with counter for each death ETB)
• Costly Plunder - 1B - C (sac creature/artifact draw 2)
• Vanquish the Weak - 2B - C (instant, destroy power <=3)
• Vraska’s Contempt - 2BB - R (exile creature/planeswalker, gain 2)
• Dark Nourishment - 4B - U (lightning helix)

Red

• Dual Shot - R - C
• Sure Strike - 1R - C (+3/+0 first strike)
• Lightning Strike - 1R - U
• Dinosaur Stampede - 2R - U (trumpet blast & trample to dinos)
• Fiery Cannonade - 2R - U (Pirateclasm, instant)
• Unfriendly Fire - 4R - C (Lightning Blast)

Green

• Pounce - 1G - C (instant fight)
• River Herald’s Boon - 1G - C (+1+1 counter on creature, another one on merfolk)
• Verdant Rebirth - 1G - U (when creature dies, return to hand + draw)
• Blinding Fog - 2G - C (prev all dmg to all creatures, hexproof to yours)
• Crash the Ramparts - 2G - C (Awaken the Bear)
• Crushing Canopy - 2G - C (instant plummet or demystify)
• Slice in Twain - 2GG - U (naturalize cantrip)
• Snapping Sailback - 4G - U (flash 4/4 fungusaur)

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Let's dive down deeper on their implications for the format.

White

• Demystify - W - C
• Slash of Talons - W - C (2 to combat)
• Vampire’s Zeal - W - C (+2+2, 1st strike to vamp)
• Sheltering Light - W - U (indestructible scry)
• Rallying Roar - 2W - U (+1+1 untap)
• Ritual of Rejuvenation - 2W - C (gain 4 draw)
• Settle the Wreckage - 2WW - R (Path all attackers)
• Bright Reprisal - 4W - U (Second Thoughts)
• Sanguine Sacrament - XWW - R (gain 2X)

There's a loose overlap between Slash of Talons and Vampire's Zeal, so be aware of two common ways to deal 2 extra damage to a creature in combat.

Some of these instants REALLY influence combat decisions. Settle the Wreckage's impact is high enough where I expect there may be spots to attack differently into 2WW even when it's not a known card in the opponent's deck. Rallying Roar is somewhat tough to avoid since it untaps blockers, but playing around it might look like attacking with ~half of one's creatures while leaving ~half back to defend, adjusted for the current board state, of course. The idea is to avoid exposure to situations where Roar can win multiple creature matchups.

There are a fair amount of Demystify targets. At common and uncommon, the white removal (Pious Interdiction, Ixalan's Binding) look like the best ones, and a few of those should often warrant sideboarding it in. Be aware of this from both sides of white mirrors. Other than that, Sunbird's Invocation looks pretty good and would be a worthy target, and then a few of the rare flip enchantments are possibly worth killing, but the big reasons to side this in look to be the white creature removal spells.

Blue

• Dive Down - U - C (+0/+3 hexproof)
• Opt - U - C
• Spell Pierce - U - C
• Siren’s Ruse - 1U - C (cloudshift)
• Perilous Voyage - 1U - U (Disperse, scry 2 if <=2)
• Depths of Desire - 2U - C (unsummon/treasure)
• Lookout’s Dispersal - 2U - U (Convolute, 2drop if pirate)
• Cancel - 1UU - C
• Dreamcaller Siren - 2UU - R ( 3/3 flash high flying, taps 2 nonland if 2 pirates)
• Run Aground - 3U - C (Repel, hits artifacts)
• Spell Swindle - 3UU - R (mana drain with treasure)
• Wind Strider - 4U - C (3/3 flying flash)

With the unusually aggressive bent of the blue cards in this set, the mediocre 1-mana trick in Dive Down may have much bigger of a role to play than usual. Both modes are below the bar in a vacuum, but both serve to press a curve-out advantage.

More bounce than usual (and little other permanent blue removal) with 2 common and 1 uncommon. Some first-order implications: Creature auras and combat tricks are much weaker against blue, there's good coverage for the other instants (i.e. easier to leave up countermagic & the flash creatures). These effects, in conjunction with the raw effect of bounce spells, all support blue aggressive decks gaining tempo advantage in the early and midgame.

Spell Swindle in particular is well-covered by Run Aground and Wind Strider. It'll be hard to play around. When it's not a known card in the opponent's deck, I suspect that one will usually have to ignore the possibility, but once known, it certainly impacts the ordering of spells.

Black

• Skulduggery - B - C (+1+1 & -1-1)
• Bloodcrazed Paladin - 1B - R (1/1 with counter for each death ETB)
• Costly Plunder - 1B - C (sac creature/artifact draw 2)
• Vanquish the Weak - 2B - C (instant, destroy power <=3)
• Vraska’s Contempt - 2BB - R (exile creature/planeswalker, gain 2)
• Dark Nourishment - 4B - U (lightning helix)

Skulduggery is a high-impact trick that will likely need to be on one's mind nearly constantly. It also has impacts for sideboarding for creature size; finding additional X/(X+1) creatures against a black deck with lots of X/X creatures gets a little worse, early high-toughness blockers will be much better when they cover typical power by 2 (or 3) instead of 1, and naturally one-toughness creatures become a liability. Skulduggery plus Dual Shot may prove to be enough push to skew the format away from maindeck one-toughness creatures, and should have a big influence on creature swaps during sideboarding.

Bloodcrazed Paladin included for completeness, but it is unlikely to serve as creature removal.

Both Vanquish the Weak & Dark Nourishment are at high risk for being retricked at a big tempo gain by small pump spells. E.g. Vampire's Zeal goes up in value against these cards.

Red

• Dual Shot - R - C
• Sure Strike - 1R - C (+3/+0 first strike)
• Lightning Strike - 1R - U
• Dinosaur Stampede - 2R - U (trumpet blast & trample to dinos)
• Fiery Cannonade - 2R - U (Pirateclasm, instant)
• Unfriendly Fire - 4R - C (Lightning Blast)

Red is missing a small/medium instant burn spell for removal and retrick purposes. Dual Shot looks maindeckable and will have an impact on combat decisions somewhat similar to Skulduggery, but not as extreme an effect.

The only red trick being Sure Strike has a few significant implications. It supports attacking small creatures into big blockers for enabling Raid. Menace creatures get a bit better; Sure Strike + Headstrong Brute is strong synergy, and Fire Shrine Keeper lends itself towards eventually being double-blocked and we may want to be wary about making that block with two X/2s. It's also worth noting that Sheltering Light is a clean 1-mana retrick against Sure Strike.

Green

• Pounce - 1G - C (instant fight)
• River Herald’s Boon - 1G - C (+1+1 counter on creature, another one on merfolk)
• Verdant Rebirth - 1G - U (when creature dies, return to hand + draw)
• Blinding Fog - 2G - C (prev all dmg to all creatures, hexproof to yours)
• Crash the Ramparts - 2G - C (Awaken the Bear)
• Crushing Canopy - 2G - C (instant plummet or demystify)
• Slice in Twain - 2GG - U (naturalize cantrip)
• Snapping Sailback - 4G - U (flash 4/4 fungusaur)

River Herald's Boon looks to be format-defining similarly to Skulduggery, but tougher to play around. It should always be front-of-mind against any deck with Merfolk.

Crash the Ramparts as the other green trick will be tough to play around once it gets into Lava Axe mode, but rewards good retricks quite a bit if you can save them and set the game up for them. Its presence skews green towards attacking. This plus the uncommon Dinosaur Stampede equals two ways to provide instant-speed trample to the larger Dinosaurs.

The green creatures look to have a consistent size advantage against most other colors' creatures (unsurprisingly for dinosaurs), so Pounce should be at the higher end of the spectrum of how good the common fight cards are, as compared to some older formats where the green fight spell ended up being mediocre due to a low creature size differential.

Crushing Canopy has the same targets as Demystify plus a solid density of playable fliers across white and blue. There are almost no good targets on either side in red or green, and basically black too, so I do not envision this being a maindeckable card, but it should be a strong sideboard card against white in particular. Do not ever cast this targeting One With the Wind.

Not a ton of artifacts for Slice in Twain, but the same enchantments as above plus one equipment (Pirate's Cutlass), a few good vehicles, and a few rares worth targeting, mostly Vanquisher's Banner.

Don't get surprised by Snapping Sailback.

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Conclusions

• Most important tricks to constantly keep in mind: Skulduggery, River Herald's Boon, and maybe Dual Shot.
• Every color has one 5-drop instant at common or uncommon. Most of them greatly influence attacking decisions. Learn these quickly.
• In addition to Bright Reprisal, white has two other uncommon/rare instants that greatly influence attacking decisions: Rallying Roar & Settle the Wreckage.
• Blue has good coverage for its counterspells and flash creatures by its three instant bounce spells, making it tough to play around these.
• Green tricks skew it towards attacking.

Ixalan Limited Dive Down: Tribal Payoffs

Here is a quick reference list of every card in Ixalan that explicitly references a creature type:

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All Dinosaur Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Dinosaurs (snub the intro pack Snubhorn and Sun-Blessed Mount))

• Kinjalli’s Caller - W - C (0/3 dino-speaker)
• Imperial Lancer - W - U (1/1 maybe doublestrike)
• Priest of the Wakening Sun - W - R (1/1 reveal to gain 2 / 3WW tutor)
• Pterodon Knight - 3W - C (3/3 maybe flying)
• Wakening Sun’s Avatar - 5WWW - M (7/7 wrath)
• Otepec Huntmaster - 1R - U (1/2 dinospeaker + tap for haste to dino)
• Tilonalli’s Knight - 1R - C (2/2, 3/3 on attack if dino)
• Thrash of Raptors - 3R - C (3/3, 5/3 trample if dino)
• Dinosaur Stampede - 2R - U (trumpet blast & trample to dinos)
• Drover of the Mighty - 1G - C (gemhide, 3/3 if dino)
• Thundering Spineback - 5GG - U (5/5, dino lord, 5G make a dino)
• Commune with Dinosaurs - G - C (top 5, pick dino or land)
• Savage Stomp - 2G - U (Hunt the Weak, G if dino)
• Regisaur Alpha - 3RG - R (4/4, makes 3/3 trample, haste to dinos)
• Gishath, Sun’s Avatar - 5RGW - M (7/6 haste vig trample, hit = reveal for dinos direct to play)

All Pirate Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Pirates)

• Dreamcaller Siren - 2UU - R (3/3 flash high flying, taps 2 nonland if pirate)
• Siren’s Ruse - 1U - C (Cloudshift, draw if it's a pirate)
• Lookout’s Dispersal - 2U - U (Convolute, cheaper if pirate)
• Fathom Fleet Captain - 1B - R (2/1 menace, 2 to make 2/2 menace on attack if another nontoken pirate)
• March of the Drowned - B - C (raise dead, can get 2 pirates)
• Headstrong Brute - 2R - C (3/3 no block, menace if pirate)
• Lightning-Rig Crew - 2R - U (0/5 scurv-o-alchemist)
• Fiery Cannonade - 2R - U (Pirateclasm, instant)
• Dire Fleet Captain - RB - U (2/2, +1/+1 on attack for other attacking Pirates)
• Admiral Beckett Brass - 1UBR - M (3/3 pirate lord, steal nonland if hit with 3 pirates)
• Fell Flagship - 3 - R (+1/+0 to Pirates, 3/3 specter, crew 3) 
• Pirate’s Cutlass - 3 - C (+2/+1, attach to pirate on ETB, equip 2)

Vampire Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Vampires)

• Duskborne Skymarcher - W - U (flying, vampire-only infantry veteran)
• Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle - 2W - R (nontoken vamp attack = one 1/1 lifelink)
• Vampire’s Zeal - W - C (+2+2, 1st strike to vamp)
• Anointed Deacon - 4B - C (3/3, +2/+0 to one vamp each attack)
• Bishop of the Bloodstained - 3BB - U (3/3, ETB lose life = # of vamps)
• Deathless Ancient - 4BB - U (4/4 flier, tap 3 vamps to rebuy)
• Sanctum Seeker - 2BB - R (3/4, drain 1 for each vamp attack)

Merfolk Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Merfolk)

• Shaper Apprentice - 1U - C (2/1 maybe flying)
• River Sneak - 1U - U (1/1 unblockable, +1+1 EOT for Merfolk)
• Deeproot Waters - 2U - U (Oketra’s Merfolk Monument)
• Kopala, Warden of Waves - 1UU - R (2/2 kira)
• Kumena’s Speaker - G - U (1/1, 2/2 if merfolk or island)
• Vineshaper Mystic - 2G - U (1/3, Support 2 for Merfolk)
• Jade Guardian - 3G - C (2/2 hexproof, +1+1 counter to merfolk ETB)
• River Herald’s Boon - 1G - C (+1+1 counter on creature, another one on merfolk)
• And they can't be forced to Walk the Plank.

Diversity

• Grim Captain’s Call - 2B - U (raise dead one of each tribe)

Choose One

• Pillar of Origins - 2 - U (fixing/ramp rock for chosen type only)
• Vanquisher’s Banner - 5 - R (choose type: Anthem + Zendikar Resurgent)

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Let's dive down deeper on each tribe and how their payoffs shape how we'll draft them. (Or jump to the bottom for TL;DR conclusions.)

Dinosaurs

All Dinosaur Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Dinosaurs (snub the intro pack Snubhorn and Sun-Blessed Mount))

• Kinjalli’s Caller - W - C (0/3 dino-speaker)

• Imperial Lancer - W - U (1/1 maybe doublestrike)

• Priest of the Wakening Sun - W - R (1/1 reveal to gain 2 / 3WW tutor)

• Pterodon Knight - 3W - C (3/3 maybe flying)

• Wakening Sun’s Avatar - 5WWW - M (7/7 wrath)

• Otepec Huntmaster - 1R - U (1/2 dinospeaker + tap for haste to dino)

• Tilonalli’s Knight - 1R - C (2/2, 3/3 on attack if dino)

• Thrash of Raptors - 3R - C (3/3, 5/3 trample if dino)

• Dinosaur Stampede - 2R - U (trumpet blast & trample to dinos)

• Drover of the Mighty - 1G - C (gemhide, 3/3 if dino)

• Thundering Spineback - 5GG - U (5/5, dino lord, 5G make a dino)

• Commune with Dinosaurs - G - C (top 5, pick dino or land)

• Savage Stomp - 2G - U (Hunt the Weak, G if dino)

• Regisaur Alpha - 3RG - R (4/4, makes 3/3 trample, haste to dinos)

• Gishath, Sun’s Avatar - 5RGW - M (7/6 haste vig trample, hit = reveal for dinos direct to play)

6 of these get their full bonus from just one creature of the type, 6 reward having as many of that type as possible, and 3 are somewhere in the middle.

The threshold-one tribal payoffs skew towards the lower end of the curve, whereas the scalable rewards are higher up on the curve. This suggests that the more aggressive Dinosaur decks won't need to prioritize Dinosaurs above better cards of other types.

The R/W Dinosaurs overlap the aggressive R/W creatures overall, and the R/W tribal payoffs are almost all threshold-one as the cost reducers seem less important here. I don't think I'd want Kinjalli's Caller in my tight R/W builds, but enough of the 5+ drops could make it compelling. Otepec Huntmaster seems better and may be a fine inclusion with a few Aerosaurs and Aegisaurs to ramp out with haste, but there's an overflow of good, aggressive 2-drops here anyway. So I think most R/W decks won't have to go out of their way to have enough Dinosaurs to turn on their Knights, so they won't really be drafted as "Dinosaur tribal". This also means that there are fewer incentives for a base-R/W deck to splash Green.

The W/G Dinosaurs have a much higher-end curve and will probably want to lean on Kinjalli's Caller for ramp and thus go deeper into a linear tribal deck. Belligerent Brontodon seems mediocre, and beware that it downgrades Raptor Companion and Ravenous Daggertooth; its combo with the 1/7 Looming Altisaur is unsubtle but could be effective. Splashing red may occur most often in this base for card quality and on-tribe bombs (with Raging Swordtooth and Regisaur Alpha as the multicolored pickups).

The R/G Dinosaurs are similarly linear, but with better gold payoffs. Bellowing Aegisaur is a very attractive white splash, particularly with Enrage enablers. This deck has way more ways to abuse Ranging Raptors than G/W and that's a pull towards it being the better ramp color pair. I think I'll be more inclined to get into red than white after starting with a strong green Dinosaur tribal card.

Pirates

All Pirate Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Pirates)

• Dreamcaller Siren - 2UU - R (3/3 flash high flying, taps 2 nonland if pirate)

• Siren’s Ruse - 1U - C (Cloudshift, draw if it's a pirate)

• Lookout’s Dispersal - 2U - U (Convolute, cheaper if pirate)

• Fathom Fleet Captain - 1B - R (2/1 menace, 2 to make 2/2 menace on attack if another nontoken pirate)

• March of the Drowned - B - C (raise dead, can get 2 pirates)

• Headstrong Brute - 2R - C (3/3 no block, menace if pirate)

• Lightning-Rig Crew - 2R - U (0/5 scurv-o-alchemist)

• Fiery Cannonade - 2R - U (Pirateclasm, instant)

• Dire Fleet Captain - RB - U (2/2, +1/+1 on attack for other attacking Pirates)

• Admiral Beckett Brass - 1UBR - M (3/3 pirate lord, steal nonland if hit with 3 pirates)

• Fell Flagship - 3 - R (+1/+0 to Pirates, 3/3 specter, crew 3) 

• Pirate’s Cutlass - 3 - C (+2/+1, attach to pirate on ETB, equip 2)

4 of these get their full bonus from just one creature of the type, 6 reward having as many of that type as possible, and 2 are somewhere in the middle.

The scalable linear rewards are concentrated strongly in red, and the strongest Pirate payoffs are also in red, as the blue and black cards seem to have less overall distance between their floor and ceiling.

So the U/B Pirate deck really doesn't have much reason to prioritize Pirates. Of all the color pairs so far, U/B has the most freedom from a tribal pull. I'm skeptical about it being a dedicated Treasure deck to any real depth, though the uncommon Deadeye Plunderers supports some skew towards Treasure cards, which would be an indirect Pirate pull. Otherwise, I think this color will usually draft mostly agnostic of creature type.

U/R Pirates have a good curve of Raid but may not be heavy on Pirate tribal. Depending on how many of the three 2R Pirate tribal cards above they have, evasive non-Pirates could be welcome to the crew. Fiery Cannonade in particular would be the biggest pull away from small non-Pirates and towards a more all-Pirate strategy, which looks supported here.

B/R Pirates have the lowest curve of Pirates and perhaps the most reasons to stay Pirate-focused. The uncommon Dire Fleet Captain isn't a huge payoff on its own, but R/B aggro might also be the color pair to want Pirate's Cutlass the most. Again, the presence of Fiery Cannonade in one's draft pile may be the biggest factor in creature type prioritization.

Vampires

Vampire Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Vampires)

• Duskborne Skymarcher - W - U (flying, vampire-only infantry veteran)

• Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle - 2W - R (nontoken vamp attack = one 1/1 lifelink)

• Vampire’s Zeal - W - C (+2+2, 1st strike to vamp)

• Anointed Deacon - 4B - C (3/3, +2/+0 to one vamp each attack)

• Bishop of the Bloodstained - 3BB - U (3/3, ETB lose life = # of vamps)

• Deathless Ancient - 4BB - U (4/4 flier, tap 3 vamps to rebuy)

• Sanctum Seeker - 2BB - R (3/4, drain 1 for each vamp attack)

1 of these gets their full bonus from just one creature of the type, 4 reward having as many of that type as possible, 1 is somewhere in the middle, and 1 of them is Vampire's Zeal with a truly negligible tribal bonus.

This is very few payoffs compared to the two major three-color tribes, even when adjusting for the fact that they span three colors. Anointed Deacon fits well with the various common lifelink and flying Vampires but doesn't benefit much from a heavy Vampire density. The two uncommons pull towards heavy Vampire commitment, but I'm skeptical that the payoffs are worth going too far out of the way for, versus picking something else over those uncommons. Deathless Ancient is unique in that you miss out on the extra value entirely if you don't draw enough Vampire density to have three in play. Sanctum Seeker looks like the most powerful pull, but most of the time, I expect to put little value on the Vampire creature type in-draft and to not be overly inclined to pair white and black together.

Merfolk

Merfolk Tribal Cards (Gatherer: All Ixalan Merfolk)

• Shaper Apprentice - 1U - C (2/1 maybe flying)

• River Sneak - 1U - U (1/1 unblockable, +1+1 EOT for Merfolk)

• Deeproot Waters - 2U - U (Oketra’s Merfolk Monument)

• Kopala, Warden of Waves - 1UU - R (2/2 kira)

• Kumena’s Speaker - G - U (1/1, 2/2 if merfolk or island)

• Vineshaper Mystic - 2G - U (1/3, Support 2 for Merfolk)

• Jade Guardian - 3G - C (2/2 hexproof, +1+1 counter to merfolk ETB)

• River Herald’s Boon - 1G - C (+1+1 counter on creature, another one on merfolk)

• And they can't be forced to Walk the Plank.

5 of these get their full bonus from just one creature of the type, 3 reward having as many of that type as possible, and 0 are somewhere in the middle.

This is about as light as Vampires. Here, 2 of the 5 threshold-one tribal cards don't always need any other Merfolk (Kumena's Speaker and Jade Guardian). The 3 scalable reward cards all feel pretty weak; River Sneak and Deeproot Waters pulls towards more Merfolk but don't seem to be that far above par even when firing on all cylinders, and Kopala's effect is relatively underwhelming for a rare lord payoff. I expect to only slightly prioritize Merfolk in a U/G draft most of the time, but moreso than I prioritize Vampires, because having 1 Merfolk in play for River Herald's Boon and Vineshaper Mystic seems important.

Diversity

• Grim Captain’s Call - 2B - U (raise dead one of each tribe)

B/G is the one two-color pair that covers all four tribes, and based on the overall medium level of tribal in the format, at least a few seats at every table should be mostly nontribal, so I don't think B/G or U/W are undraftable. In a B/G deck with a wide enough spread of creature types, I think this card gets good.

Choose One

• Pillar of Origins - 2 - U (fixing/ramp rock for chosen type only)
• Vanquisher’s Banner - 5 - R (choose type: Anthem + Zendikar Resurgent)

I think Pillar will fit fine into dino decks that want ramp/fixing. Pirate decks probably want it less because they're splashing less often and ramping less hard, but it could show up in some of the looser drafts, and it does pump Deadeye Plunderers. I think it looks completely nonviable in Vampires or Merfolk decks, which don't need the fixing or ramp and will often be less tribally focused.

Vanquisher's Banner seems pretty strong overall and should be a reason to tribe harder into whatever tribe you're tribing.

I will note for completeness that there is an extremely minor amount of secondary tribe overlap spanning the four main tribes, such that you might technically be correct to call something like Human, Knight, Soldier, etc. on these artifacts a nonzero amount of the time, so, enjoy that.

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Conclusions

• The importance of tribal focus by tribe: Dinosaurs > Pirates >> Merfolk > Vampires
• Dinosaurs' tribal focus looks important in R/G and G/W, but not R/W.
• R/W Dinosaur decks can likely get enough Dinosaurs for their threshold-one payoffs without going out of their way.
• Pirate density matters more in B/R than in U/R, and much more than in U/B.
• Fiery Cannonade looks like a pivotal card in creating a need to prioritize Pirates.
• Vampires' tribal pulls come almost entirely from two uncommons (Bishop of the Bloodstained & Deathless Ancient), and one rare Sanctum Seeker.
• Most Merfolk tribal cards need only 0 or 1 other Merfolk to be at near full capacity.

My Take on Limited Resources' Ixalan Common and Uncommon Set Review

To immerse myself in a new Limited format, I usually read through the full spoiler once or twice and then wait for the Limited Resources set review. It's very well-done and is a strong foundation for the draft format. (If you've found this article but not listening to Limited Resources, you are doing it wrong.)

I usually find myself disagreeing on a few parts. At the risk of my first post here seeming overly critical of Marshall & LSV -- it's not intended to be, I recognize the unattainability of getting every narrow detail perfect during an epic first take and that nitpicking pieces after the fact is way easier -- here's where I found myself disagreeing with the LR set review and the tweaks I'm making for my Week 0 baseline:

• Call to the Feast -- LR had this at B. My gut is that it's closer to C+; there was an assumption that W/B vampires will be a classic "go wide" strategy, but I think the payoffs are too thin. No pumping Vampire lords, just Sanctum Seeker and the one-shot of Bishop of the Bloodstained. No persistent anthem effects beyond Bellowing Aegisaur {EDIT: missed Vanquisher's Banner, which seems like a great thing for Vampires to wave}, and the only other mass pump is weak (Rallying Roar & Encampment Keeper). A sideways lord in Deathless Ancient, which may be the best combo with this.
• LR made a few instances of contextual card evaluation based on Vampires having a theme of life payments for effects, but there are only two such cards in the set, both at uncommon (Adanto Vanguard, Glorifier of Dusk).
• Raging Swordtooth -- Notably overlooked is that it hits all your Enrage creatures (and opponents' Enrage creatures, too). B+ still seems right, but this synergy seems substantial for many R/G decks.
• Dual Shot -- They also missed the Enrage synergy here. I think this will be an important part of Dual Shot's playability. They called it just for sideboard but I think I'll be actively wanting a maindeck copy in decks with one great Enrage target (e.g. Ranging Raptors) and a few other good targets. I haven't taken a hard look at the set's one-toughness density yet, so it could be even better. I'll start at C-.
• Emergent Growth -- D is probably right, but there's a small pocket of cards in R/G that might notch it up to C in some decks, with Raptor Hatchling as a particularly spicy Turn 4 target amongst the Enragers, plus natural synergy of this effect with tramplers (Dinosaur tokens, Thrash of Raptors and Colossal Dreadmaw). I'll be looking to try it when I've got those.
• Ixalli's Diviner -- I like where they're at overall on Explore, but Diviner at C+ could prove a notch or two too high. 1G 0/3 draw a card or 1G 1/4 Scry can never get too bad, but I can imagine formats where these bodies are too low-impact. In a vacuum, I might prefer Elvish Visionary to this, for example. So I'd start it at C.
• Bright Reprisal -- They're on C-, I think it's closer to C, albeit with a lot of matchup dependency. I think I'll start off as happy maindecking one in most decks. The downsides are real, but there are are some big creatures in this set and not a ton of ways to kill them, so even conditional removal should pull its weight. Minor note that every other color has exactly one other instant 5-drop to pair it with at common or uncommon (Wind Strider, Dark Nourishment, Unfriendly Fire, Snapping Sailback).
• Sheltering Light -- Given a knowingly-ambitious grade of B-. I think it might just be a flat C, but I'll go C+ for now. Gods Willing had a lot of format-specific synergy, so I think that's too high a comparison.
• Headwater Sentries -- No beef with the grade, but they mention that you might end up playing this because of its creature type. I don't think that's likely, as there are very few Merfolk payoff cards that reward going hard linear on tribal.
• Blight Keeper -- They gave it a D+, but I like it at C- and wouldn't be shocked to notch it up to C. The rate is good, it threatens a big amount of drain which self-synergizes with the Flying Men side of the card. Treasure will help some Black decks spike 8 mana, so the 1/1 could serve as a Flagbearer at the 7-mana mark in some lategames. I will feel fine including one or maybe two in my aggressive black decks. They also noted that it doesn't have Vampire synergy, but I don't think that matters too much, as there are very few payoffs for Vampire synergy.
• Grim Captain's Call -- They said that this will only work in decks that "give up on tribal", but, having not done the math, I suspect that the median normal deck will be able to hit 2 things with this fairly reliably, with a 5-10% chance of hitting 3. Just my intuition.
• Fiery Cannonade -- LSV missed the "Pirateclasm" pun that Design clearly seeded.
• Firecannon Blast -- Given a straight B, I'm way less excited about it than LR was. I'm closer to C+ than B-. The non-raid floor is clearly a playable rate, but after thinking about it, the raid part could be clunkier than it first looks. In a deck without evasive creatures to trigger Raid (not a lot of evasion in red), in order to turn on the Raid, you'll either have to wait for a clean attack past their big creature (making this closer to Assassinate) or often chump-attack a creature into the freshly-cast target (in which case the extra Raid damage might be moot). The biggest format-specific uncertainty there is on the "often", and I'll be paying close attention. It looks like both U/R and B/R could have enough density evasive creatures to enable Raid in some aggressive builds, which is what I expect will be necessary to make this card play completely categorically differently than the above. Double-red could also prove to be a substantial drawback given that the two red tribes are the 3-color tribes.
• Nest Robber - It was given a D, I'd put it at C-. The low-curve aggro deck seems supported in R/W and the Dino creature type matters at least a little bit there (Tilonalli's Knight, Imperial Lancer, Pterodon Knight). I think this will slot in fine.
• And then there are always a handful of cards given an unwarranted F grade, possibly for soapbox/pedantic reasons to hammer it home to less-experienced players. That probably serves the bigger audience well, but it's a pet peeve of mine. From biggest to smallest miss, here are the Fs that I yelled at my podcast about:
• Gilded Sentinel -- Many of the Fs I disagree with are because they are clear definitional Ds; F is supposed to be strictly unplayable, which is different from a below-replacement playable that will sometimes begrudgingly make the cut when a deck doesn't quite come together. This is blatantly the latter. 
• Elaborate Firecannon -- The rate is not atrocious, it has some flexibility in how it affects the board, and it has a slow Lava Axe mode. I think it's a D minimum that could prove to have sideboard applications, e.g. in a midrange/control deck with good ground defenses vs. a deck with a few unblockable small creatures.
• Encampment Keeper -- The body could have applications in a one-drop format, and the ability is one of the few mass pump effects to supplement the depth of token-making among the White cards. Those decks don't look like they should often have a lot of treasure or ramp, but it's no less than a D.
• Swashbuckling -- Again, it could be a one-drop format, and LSV's noted and maligned "combo" with Fire Shrine Keeper could actually be pretty legit if so. This could be a weak playable in those decks. D.
• Pillar of Origins -- Clearly playable in decks with enough Dinosaur density, particularly if splashing the 3rd color of dino. I think many Dinosaur-based decks will not be too upset to have to include one. D
• Hierophant's Chalice -- Rate is not that bad. Should have fallback application as a mediocre ramp piece in a deck that missed on the better options (likely including Pillar of Origins). D-
• Ritual of Rejuvenation -- No love for Reviving Quatro?? OK, it has no particular synergies or applications, maybe to swing some small creature races, but it's not unplayable. Definitely a D- and I'll probably cast it in some trainwreck drafts. But, then again, I'm continually biased by my love of all Invasion cantrips... (oh yes, we will be Opting)

My big macro-take is that LR is presupposing more hard linearity on tribal than I think the set dictates (see above: Headwater Sentries, Grim Captain's Call, Blight Keeper, somewhat Call to the Feast). There do not appear to be a lot of big payoffs for pushing hard for many of one's creatures to be of the same tribe, particularly in the two-color tribes. There are many more "Threshold 1" tribal abilities. On tribal synergy, I think Ixalan looks closer to Innistrad than to Lorwyn. 

So, going into prerelease weekend, I'd recommend we be careful to not blindly assume that we should stretch to play creatures of a certain tribe unless we actually have the big, scalable payoffs.

A deeper dig on the tribal support coming soon.

Introduction

When it comes to Magic, I'm somewhere between has-been and never-was. But I've never stopped drafting. My skill level is pretty well summarized by: Lifelong MODO Limited rating rarely stepping outside the 1800s in either direction, one lifetime pro point, and back-to-back Grand Prix mincashes.

My goals with this blog are:

1. Though Magic has grown overall since my heyday, there are gaps in written Limited content. I'm planning to write some article-type stuff that I know I'd want to read.
2. I'm looking to increase my active engagement with the game. I've never had anywhere near the time to pretend to have any premier play goals, but I'd still like to keep getting better in the pockets of time that I do find. I'm finding that I enjoy writing early spoiler analysis more than purely jamming drafts. So, occasional content! Usually around the first few weeks of a format, after which the world is just too far ahead of me in draft counts.
3. I'd like to experiment with cataloging the (realized) mistakes I make when I play. For me to reflect on and try to fill leaks, and for any others interested in following along to learn from my mistakes. Again, if some other has-been was writing this, I'd be following it.