Ixalan Limited Dive Down: Mana Curve by Color

One of the more important underdiscussed defining factors of a Limited format is the mana curve available for creatures in each color. Knowing which color combinations are, for example, more likely to clog on 4-drops, or perhaps need to prioritize 2-drops, will inform close draft decisions for aware players.

To analyze Ixalan's mana curves, I laid out each color's creatures with 3x of each common and 1x of each uncommon creature, an approximation of the true proportion, in photos below. I've included the multicolored uncommons overlapping each color to help find the relative curve importance of each color pair's gold card, as well as artifact creatures and vehicles to see which colors' curves might rely upon them most.

Let's dive down deeper on what we can learn about which spots on the curve to prioritize and deprioritize for each color.

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White

White has a notable high density at the 4- and 5-drop slots relative to other colors. This notches down the value over replacement of the better common drops over the weaker ones and introduces an extra skew towards lower-curve while drafting. E.g. Looming Altisaur looks to be the worst 4-drop, and the clog means it's even less likely to make the cut or to add much value during sideboarding than it would be otherwise. Thus decks that want it don't have to worry much about other decks taking it. This also makes the good uncommon 4- and 5-drops a little less valuable over replacement; Glorifier of Dusk is strong, but often it will only upgrading a Shining Aerosaur or Sunrise seeker, so it could be less impactful of a draft pick than a unique effect or a spot lower on the curve.

The 3-drop creatures feature some conditional cards in Queen's Commission, a card that looks to be be a weak 3-drop in many decks, and of course Legion Conquistador which will often be unplayable. So Territorial Hammerskull is even more critical to the white curve, and the uncommons are less likely to just be a minor upgrade over another 3-drop. Sleek Schooner is an extra good fit in white due to crewability by 1/1 tokens.


Blue

Blue has an aggressive skew in Ixalan, but is relatively light on 1- and 2-drops. Siren Stormtamer being the most (/only?) playable 1-drop earns it a good bit of extra prioritization due to two different in-color contextual features: two different blue 2-drop raid creatures that would be great to play on turn 2, and Storm Sculptor getting a lot better with cheaper creatures to bounce.

While blue, like white, is more likely to be cutting 5-drops, the Crew 2 of Dusk Legion Dreadnought seems to line up well with a few of the blue 2/X ETB creatures. A speculative caveat on Deadeye Plunderers is that it could be really good in some decks, but in decks without as much Treasure synergy, it may only be slightly upgrading a different 5-drop.

Black

Black has a pretty high density of 1- and 2-drops that are mostly playable...ish. The fact that many are on the weaker end of playable means that a black drafter could get them quite late. So black decks can feel free to skew a little more towards higher-end cards during the draft and be confident that they'll usually be able to pick up something to fill out their early curve.

The 3-drop slot is quite light, so without another color complementing this curve hole, black is more likely to end up with fewer 3s than ideal and extra 2s to compensate. If the 2s are indeed a little weaker than desired for 2-drops, they will cover a small 3-slot particularly poorly.

A black deck that isn't interested in Vampire synergy has slimmer pickings among the 5- and 6-drops.

Red

Red too has a lot of 2-drops, and of better overall quality than black. The two multicolor uncommons aren't adding as much value over replacement as they would seem to without this context.

Headstrong Brute seems to be by far the strongest common 3-drop for an aggressive deck and likely merits extra prioritization for that.

Green

In both the 2-drop and the 3-drop slot, green's creatures are mostly relatively of the same overall power level, but they do rather different things. A ramp deck that ends up with Deeproot Warriors and Ravenous Daggertooth instead of Ixalli's Diviners and Blossom Dryads seems like it would be quite a bit worse off, and vice versa for the aggressive decks. My sense from looking at this is that green's identity is more split than I first thought.

Surprisingly for green, the 5-drop slot is rather empty, with Spike-Tailed Ceratops looking fairly weak. The 6-drop option of Colossal Dreadmaw is much stronger. This could lead to some weird holes in midrange and ramp decks. It also means that the short-term ramp impact of Blossom Dryad and New Horizons is muted, with no good prospects for a turn 4 5-drop.

I still have no sense of the fit of the 8-drop Ancient Brontodon into the format, but there are fewer ramp payoffs in green in the 5-7-drop range than I expected, so having one of these might be where some green decks want to be.

Curve Observations by Two-Color Pair
Of course, real drafts are usually two-color pairs. Some pairs lead colors to even out the curve disparities of the other, while others amplify holes or clogs. The Creature Curve Complementarity Ratings are not necessarily a grade for the overall color pair, but rather a representation of how much focus and care must be taken during draft to construct an ideal mana curve, i.e. Blue-Black's A rating means this pair has a lot of flexibility on curve considerations in-draft, and White-Blue's D rating means a White-Blue drafter have to work hard to fill out the early curve with suitable creatures and avoid the traffic jam at 5-drops.

• White-Blue
• Sadly, none of the white 1-drops seem like a good fit in white-blue. Overall, a lot of the creatures don't seem to complement each other well; Pterodon Knights have trouble getting off the ground, the other evasive creatures weaken the impact of Territorial Hammerskull. I was hopeful that the lack of multicolored uncommon and tribal support wouldn't nerf White-Blue, but it doesn't look good from this analysis. None of the 4-drops seem like great fits, and there are too many of them. Also note that this color pair has the biggest clog at the 5-drop slot.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: D
• Blue-Black
• The black 1-drops and 2-drops seem like much better fits than white's overall into a Blue-Black strategy. The common black 1-drops also enable Raid well, which means that Raid-heavy blue decks could find support in black as well as red. Blue's 3-drops also fit well and fill that hole in black. The black 5-drops don't synergize, but the blue 5-drops look great. Blue-black decks should rarely have to scrape for a playable density of synergistic creatures at all points on the curve.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: A
• Black-Red
• There are a lot of 2-drops overall, but quite a few of the them don't have a lot of synergy here (Tilonalli's Knight, Desperate Castaways, Nest Robber). Nonetheless, this color pair has a janky aggro bail-out path in its early drops. Headstrong Brute looks like a high curve priority here. The middle and upper ends of the curve seem well-complimented, but will rely upon red for the best 5- and 6-drops for an aggressive strategy.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: B
• Red-Green
• This looks to be the pair with the highest count of playable 2-drops, so there may be a secret low-curve deck in this pair. Assuming the typical route is more midrange/ramp, the 3s and 4s complement each other well, and Sun-Crowned Hunters is a second solid 6-drop for a ramp strategy, but there's no great 5 outside of the uncommons, and that's a notable hole, making Raging Swordtooth extra important.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: B
• Green-White
• These look to line up well. Kilonalli's Caller will fit some green decks, the better 2- and 3-drops will come from green, and white provides good options at the 4-drop slot and that critical 5-drop green hole. Each color has commons that could be subpar filler at various spots, but overall these two colors cover each other's bases well.  
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: A
• White-Black
• There are a lot of vaguely-playable 1-drops for a scrappier low-curve version of White-Black. The 2-drops aren't great fits. The sketchier white vampire 3-drops will fill the hole left by black's, but it would be hard to have a good curve without including Queen's Commission and Legion Conquistador, so if the deck doesn't offer enough synergy to make these cards good, it could be a weak spot; Territorial Hammerskull is still king here. The 4-drops are clogged enough where the off-theme ones should rarely make the cut and where Call to the Feast won't be a huge priority in the less-synergistic decks. The 5-drops are pretty crowded, too.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: C
• Black-Green
• Another weird marriage of curves in an unsupported color pair. Multiple black commons seem off-theme with anything the green cards would do. For that reason, this deck may more commonly be heavier green than black. This is the ostensible home of the Lurking Chupacabra, with both black and green having two commons with Explore versus each other colors' one. If building around that card, a curve based on the Explore creatures with generic support from others seems to fill out OK, but still with a notable hole on 5. If trying to live the Grim Captain's Call dream, it looks like there's at least 2 of each of the 4 tribes at common that form an OK curve foundation together. Without either of these synergies, it'll just be a pile of decent creatures, but, other than the 5s, the curve is well-covered. Dusk Legion Dreadnought seems like it may fit best here.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: C
• Green-Blue
• The aggressive Green-Blue ideal seems to balance out well between these two colors. There should be plenty of decent fallback options to have a beatdown deck of approximately half Merfolk. The 2-drops are fairly interchangeable and plenty are available, and the number of desirable 4- and 5- drops seems about right for a lower curve. Worth noting that it looks like it might be harder to have a fallback midrange strategy in this color pair without sacrificing its creature quality and synergy.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: A
• Blue-Red
• Fire Shrine Keeper could fit here sometimes as a Raid enabler. Fathom Fleet Firebrand and Shipwreck Looter are the only common 2-drops on-theme, which is not ideal for an aggressive deck, and the fallback options may have few synergies in this color pair. Most of the 3-drops seem fine in this strategy, but the 4s are rougher fits; extra priority to the uncommon Marauding Looter. The blue evasive creatures enable the 5-drop Storm Fleet creatures well. 
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: C
• Red-White
• Most of the available 2-drops seem of relatively similar power level, so Sky Terror should perhaps be seen more as a color signal than a high-value-over-replacement addition to a Red-White deck. This color pair could often have a super-low, heavy-2 curve option, but the higher points of the curve all have a few options, too. 3 is a bit light, so Frenzied Raptor seems like it'll often make the cut since it synergizes with the knights.
• Creature Curve Complementarity Rating: B

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Conclusions

• White clogs at 4 and 5 and has conditional 3s. Green is the smoothest curve pairing with white and blue looks like a really rough pairing.
• Blue is light on 1- and 2-drops given its aggressive skew in this set. Black and green both complement very well.
• Black has tons of weak playable 1- and 2-drops that should reliably go late in draft, but is light on 3s. Blue and red offer the most reliable curve pairings.
• Red clogs at 2, so the two gold uncommon red 2-drops have lower value over replacement than they would in a vacuum. None of the pairings with red present inherent curve risk.
• Green has plenty of good 2- and 3-drops, but they don't fit all strategies. Green has a big hole at 5, any other color helps fill it, with blue and white being the smoothest complements to green.
• Specific cards to notch up in priority during draft for curve purposes: Duskborne Skymarcher, Territorial Hammerskull, Siren Stormtamer, Skymarch Bloodleter, Headstrong Brute, Kumena's Speaker, Snapping Sailback, Marauding Looter, Raging Swordtooth
• Specific cards to notch down in priority during draft for curve purposes: Looming Altisaur, Shining Aerosaur, Sunrise Seeker, Wind Strider, Desperate Castaways, Nest Robber, Ixalli's Keeper, Dire Fleet Captain, Sky Terror